Mobile home owners are particularly vulnerable in tornados and have a higher likelihood of tornado-related death than residents of other housing units, a new study by Michigan State University researchers finds. Further, counties with large income disparities are more vulnerable in tornadoes, according to the study, “Double Danger in the Double Wide: Dimensions of Poverty, Housing Quality, and Tornado Impacts,” appearing in the journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.
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Researchers speculate the number of tornado-related deaths and damage will only worsen in the U.S. and forecast the annual impact of tornadoes to increase threefold over the next few decades due to the “twin forces of increased climate variability and growth in the human-built environment.”
It’s the rising number of mobile homes that has researchers concerned as the threats from tornadoes grow. There are about 9 million mobile homes in the U.S. and an average of about 1,200 tornadoes per year, the most of any country.
“If the climatologists are right about the continuing effects of climate change, then people living in mobile homes could be particularly vulnerable to tornadoes in years to come,” says Mark Skidmore, coauthor of the study and an MSU economics professor.
In studying tornado fatalities in the U.S. from 1980 to 2014, researchers found that 2,447 tornado-related deaths occurred. The bulk of the deaths occurred in the region of the Midwest and Southeast labeled “tornado alley.”
Texas has the most tornadoes annually at 150, followed by Kansas at 80, Oklahoma at 64, and Florida at 61. Florida has the most mobile homes in the nation at 849,304, followed by Texas at 731,652.
The biggest factors related to tornado fatalities were housing quality and income level, researchers note. Counties with double the number of mobile homes as proportion of all homes saw 62 percent more fatalities in a tornado than counties with fewer mobile homes, according to the study.
“Though mobile homes offer a relatively inexpensive but comfortable housing alternative, it appears that this trend has made the United States more vulnerable to tornadoes over time,” the study notes. “Given this trend and our findings, it is critical that federal, state, and local policymakers consider alternatives to reduce vulnerability for those living in this type of housing arrangement.”
Among the recommendations, the authors suggest policymakers provide communal shelters in mobile home parks and eliminate tax breaks that incentivize mobile-home living. “The external cost of being exposed to greater tornado risks may be ignored when households choose to live in mobile homes due to affordability,” the authors note.
Source: “Double Danger in the Double-Wide: Dimensions of Poverty, Housing Quality, and Tornado Impacts,” Regional Science and Urban Economics (April 2017)
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